MotoGP Blog

A damp warm-up threw the cat amongst the pigeons on Sunday morning. Heavy showers are forecast for the day - whether these will influence the race remains to be seen.

The Ducati factory riders looked strong - Hayden managing 6th and Stoner taking the top, perhaps a softer fuel map helping Nicky find his rhythm. Interestingly, both Stoner and Canepa had massive rear-end slides at the same corner when on the power. It looked to my eye as though the anti-wheelspin technology on the Ducati was not working as expected. When the Ducati throttle was opened, full power was provided, resulting in the rear wet tyre spinning up and trying to overtake the front. Neither rider fell, but both had heart-in-mouth moments. The identical nature of the incidents would seem to suggest Ducati have some software updates to apply before this afternoon.

Both the Suzukis looked good - Vermeulen liking the damp stuff and Capirossi maintaining his strong form from qualifying. Melandri also looked at home - another podium in the pipeline for Marco?

Rossi was there or there abouts - perhaps not wanting to compromise his dry set-up and banking on a dry race this afternoon. Lorenzo had a miserable time - but again perhaps gambling in the race being dry. Was this the case for Dovizioso and the injured Pedrosa? de Puniet showed no fear as usual, the top Honda for much of the race.

If it rains, it’s likely to be the usual lottery. Rossi chose a losing ticket in Le Mans - will this be a winner for him?

Ducati have so much right about their MotoGP efforts. They have a championship-winning bike, they are at the front of the technology wars in terms of electronics, fuel management, traction control, and have made a success of the desmodronic valve actuation system. This year even the frame of the GP9 is revolutionary - a tiny carbon-fibre airbox doubling as the frame to which the headstock is bolted, and a new carbon-fibre swing-arm providing just the right amount of flexibility and strength.

How is it then, that only Casey Stoner can ride it? In 2008, Stoner was routinely on the front row and podium, fighting the Yamahas and Hondas for the win. Melandri had a very different experience. Trailing most of the field and occasionally the satellite Ducatis, Marco had the season from hell, well documented in the press and on this blog, he was unable to gel with the bike on any level. Now in 2009, with Hayden in the saddle of the factory Ducati, a similar story is playing out. Hayden and the satellites are in the bottom half of the results table each race weekend, while Stoner fights it out with Lorenzo, Rossi and Pedrosa for the championship lead.

A number of factors contribute to Stoner’s success on the Ducati above and beyond his prodigious talent. These same factors make it difficult for other riders to emulate his success. The factors are: Stoner’s style of riding, the Bridgestone rubber on the Ducati, and the clever on-board electronics.

Stoner’s Style
Casey is used to a bike moving about underneath him. His very early races were dirt-tracking in Western Australia in a similar manner to other notable Aussie racers. Coming through the UK and Spanish national 125cc race scene, he was picked up by Puig and joing the MotoGP circus in the 125cc class. His small, wiry frame suited the small bikes and his determination and focus saw him advance through the classes, despite a reputation for being unable to handle worn tyres and for crashing, often from podium positions in the race. A raw and untempered talent, his crashes were almost always as a result of pushing the front when in a battle with other riders. Casey leans a lot on the front tyre, braking later and harder then most. Often his corner entry will involve him approaching the apex, still braking and leaning the bike in. Crucially, on the exit to corners, he’s happy to open the throttle early and let the back end sort itself out. His style suits the Bridgestone front, and the properties of this tyre has helped to quell his reputation of being a crasher and allowed him to develop awesome consistency.

The Bridgestone Front
Bridgestone brought a different approach to tyre manufacture to the MotoGP party, tacking the problem of providing grip and durability from an entirely different perspective than the incumbent Michelin. The French company’s focus was very much on compound and the adaptation of this compound to the particular bike, rider, tarmac and conditions the tyre was being made for. Construction was a secondary concern, and after all, Michelin had the luxury of being able to fly-in tyres to European races, after making them the day before. Bridgestone, out of Japan, did not have the luxury of this, and so needed a different solution. This was to work with the construction as well as the compound to find the best compromise that would work well over a wide range of conditions. Whereas Michelin we focused on tuning the tyre to each rider, bike and track, Bridgestone worked on making the best tyre with the widest range possible. Compound was important, yes, but also how to get as much of that compound in touch with the tarmac in corners. The development of the deforming Bridgestone front was key in the Ducati success, and suited Stoner perfectly. He could now lean on the tyre when braking as hard as he liked, and it would keep him upright. Note, in 2006 on the LCR Honda “Crasher” Stoner was running Michelins.

Ducati Electronics
The MotoGP teams are engaged in an all-out electronics war, developing systems to manage the power and fuel efficiency of their engines, so that not a horsepower or drop of fuel is wasted. One of the most advanced is the system on the Ducati which uses a complex array of gyroscopes and sensors to judge lean angle, gear, throttle position and velocity to control how much power and wheelspin to allow. These aids allow Casey to be opening the throttle before he reaches the apex of the corner. The bike will sort itself out and allow him to open the throttle further, sooner than riders on other manufacturer’s machines. While still in corner exit, cranked over, he can open up the throttle and be sure the rear end will sort itself out, with just enough spin and slip. This is the phase of the corner where we see the Ducati buck and kick like a thoroughbred. Stoner alone is comfortable with the bike behaving like this.

Melandri? Hayden?
So why could Melandri not make it work, and why is Hayden still struggling to get to grips with the machine? Melandri is a pure 125 - 250 - MotoGP racer from the European school. He rides smoothly, maintains high corner speed, generally keeping the wheels in line. He’s pretty traditional in his cornering approach, and does not push the front. The idea of braking deep into the corner before immediately getting back on the throttle prior to the apex would simply be wrong for him - his instinct would suggest he needs to get around the corner and be standing the bike upright before he can increase the throttle in a dramatic way. Also, he gave up early in 2008, talking himself into failure. On the Kawasaki, he is back in familiar territory, with his smooth, in-line style paying dividends again.

Hayden might at first look to be better suited to the Ducati. Also a dirt-tracker, Hayden excelled in the 990-era, power-sliding and smoking his way around the circuits. Loose on the exit is how Nicky likes it. His issue is more with trusting the front end and the Bridgestone tyre to the extent Stoner does. Also, the early throttle action will be alien to him, and again he needs to develop trust in the electronics and in the bike that it will not highside him. This trust will be hard for him to gain given his start to the 2009 season.

What can Ducati do? It looks like not much other than wait for their riders to get their heads around the revolutionary machine they have buit. It takes time for a rider to trust a motorcycle, and even longer to change a riding style to suit, always with the threat of a highside and broken bones an instant later. The best thing that Ducati can do is offer help and support to their riders, and give them time. Meanwhile, keep Casey happy and fighting for the win.

A confluence of events made Le Mans the most unusual race in a while. A rainstorm before the start of the race to wet the tarmac; the heat of northern France to evaporate that rain at an uneven pace; a lack of an intermediate tyre or cut slicks thanks to the single tyre supplier; the flag-to-flag racing regulations, and a champion who called it wrong.

Back to that rain and the tyre choice. The conditions were screaming “intermediate” - no standing water, little spray, but a greasy, slippy, not-quite-wet, not-quite-dry situation that ruled slicks out of the equation. Rain tyres were the only choice.

Since the introduction of flag-to-flag I can’t recall a race which started wet and dried to the extent it did on Sunday - please drop me a comment if you can pick one out. Previously, dry races that got wet have been the norm, and picking the time to move from slicks to intermediates or wets has been the key. The other way around is a different call, with more variables - are your wets done? It is dry enough for a slick tyre to retain it’s temperature? What is the set-up on the other bike like for the dry? What is the dry line like, wide or narrow? Continuous? It is very different decision process.

In terms of those comfortable from the off, Pedrosa, Rossi and Lorenzo looked well set. Stoner, despite contesting the front positions in the initial laps, soon dropped off unhappy with the performance of his bike. Late in the race, he would (according to Suppo) miss a gear out of the final corner and concede a place to Vermeulen. At the time he was staring at his pit crew and almost seemed to be protesting to them that he could not work with his machine. He would pass Vermeulen again, but later and still unhappy, Stoner would skip the post-race interviews.

Back in the initial laps, Lorenzo and Rossi lead the Repsol Hondas and the dry line starts to appear in the areas where the tyres are most stressed, and the lines most limited - through the corners. Crucially, there are still patches around the circuit which are far from drying. Also proving happy in the wet is Melandri, up to 5th place, passing Pedrosa and Vermeulen in the changeable conditions.

The race, however, would turn on the timing of the team’s choice to pit for slick tyres. In dry-to-wet switches, the first rider to change is often the one who benefits most, able to put in the really fast laps and use areas of the track which are not available to the riders still on slicks. In wet-to-dry, the slick riders have only the narrow, dry line to run on. When Rossi came in to change bikes and tyres, the dry line was not even complete around the circuit, let alone wide enough to offer line choice.

Rossi wasn’t the only one to come in - Pedrosa and Capirossi followed him. Dorna’s coverage seemed to validate Rossi. Pictures from Lorenzo’s bike of his rear tyre showed it chunking up, rubber flying off. Seconds later, Rossi was off, a slow-speed low-side. This was only the start of the nightmare. Back to the pits, he would switch back to his #1 bike with wets for a couple of laps while the #2 bike was repaired. Speeding in the pits would cost him a drive-through, and another switch back to the #2 bike on slicks would put an effective end to his race. He would be 2 laps down, hoping to pick up a point or two through other rider’s misfortune. Only Kallio would oblige. Rossi would finish 16th with no points.

Lorenzo’s team must have monitored the Rossi and Pedrosa lap times and have seen that he was still much faster than the slick-shod riders. Why come in? The Lorenzo-Yamaha and Hayate teams deserve credit for having the courage of their convictions to stick to the faster tyres.

Once Lorenzo and Melandri did come in, they were able to get the best out of their tyres and hold the other slick runners at bay. Pedrosa stuffed Dovizioso (who had changed to slicks later than Dani) on the last lap to take third. A cynic would say that, due to the speed with which Pedrosa caught and took Dovi, that this was team orders to maintain Pedrosa’s challenge for the championship. Certainly Dovi looked very unhappy after the race - whether this was losing a podium in the last lap, or being told to, we’ll probably never know.

It was a rare form of a MotoGP race. A race won as much by the team as by the rider. Credit to Lorenzo and Melandri for handling their bikes with severely degraded tyres, but credit too for their teams for making the win possible for them.

MotoGPBlog Man of the Weekend: Marco Melandri for the podium nobody thought he would get this season.

Holy moly! Such an unexpected podium place for Marco and Rossi’s disaster means that very few points were scored this week. Congrats to @Chesshirecat who managed to predict Hayden’s performance and pick up three valuable points.

Le Mans Results and overall standings.

A number of Minellas were close but not close enough - @coldedude came close with Rossi, Lorenzo and Edwards doing worse than last year - Jorge’s win spoiling his party, and @domperez almost predicted Marco’s stunning performance, estimating 6th for the Italian. InsideMotoGP also almost pulled off a cracker with his “Pedrosa 4th de Puniet DNF” just a smidgen out on both counts.

Overall the leaderboard stays pretty static - @DaveMinela still out in front from @rumblestrip and @pintoffuc. Mugello predictions will open up next Sunday.

The news from the paddock after Sunday’s warm-up was that Rossi and his team had made some geometry changes to the Yamaha and as a result Rossi was much happier with the bike. He had not replicated his speed on Friday in the slightly different conditions on Saturday - radical changes were required. And they worked.

Overnight changes were also made by Ducati - holes drilled in the fairing around the handlebars and the removal of the front mudguard, in an attempt to reduce the effect of the wind on the stability of the bike.

Off the line, the surprise was Stoner’s ability to stay with Pedrosa’s rocket-launch start. Rossi slotted in behind the apparent Jerez-genius Lorenzo, and was content only to be there for the first lap, sneaking past the Spaniard to start the Stoner chase. de Puniet slams the door closed on Dovizioso at the last corner on the second lap, so hard there was contact between de Puniet’s rear tyre and Dovizioso’s forks. This was the last time anyone seriously challenged de Puniet for his position.

With status quo at the front, the action was for 7th place, with a torrid struggle going on between Capirossi, Edwards and Melandri - each leading for sections of the lap, and allowing the Dovizioso/de Puniet train.

Six laps in and Rossi has closed Stoner down and makes his move on the final corner to sweep under Stoner. Casey takes a wider line and allows Rossi room, but gets his Ducati turned and the power down sooner than the Italian to respond into turn 1 and resume his second place. It was an action replay at the end of the lap, with both Stoner and Rossi hanging out their left legs into the final turn, but this time Rossi made the pass stick. Stoner later said he waited to see if Rossi could tow him up to Pedrosa - a typical 125cc or 250 cc tactic - why slow yourself down battling for second and allowing the leader to escape?

Lorenzo by now has drifted back to be in his own race, with clear air in front and behind. Dovi takes a trip to the beach and leaved de Puniet clear and cruising in 5th place. The Capirex/Edwards/Melandri battle is now for 6th.

Dani meanwhile has established his rhythm at the front. Consistently putting in low 1:40 laps, eeking out or losing a couple of tenths per lap, his performance is again amazing. Rossi is not reeling him in with any inevitability, and Stoner is fighting to stay with Rossi. By lap 13, the tide is flowing Rossi’s way, at a rate of about a tenth a lap, until lap 16 when Rossi bites three tenths out of the gap to halve it. The scent of the lead is in Rossi’s nostrils as he repeats the feat, and passes Pedrosa in lap 17. Stoner is nowhere to be seen. Whatever Rossi did to the geometry of his Yamaha, it worked.

So where was Stoner? Slipping back into the clutches of Lorenzo. Jorge finally found his pace, matching Rossi in the 1:40’s while closing on the Ducati. Stoner seemed feted to lose his hard-fought podium place until Lorenzo choked. Pushing hard to close on Casey, he rode off the edge of the tyres, losing the bike in a low-side with just three laps and less than a second to go to Stoner. Frustrated, he tours back to the pits, pounding his fuel tank. You could hear Casey sign in relief.

The Edwards/Capirex/Melandri battle did not let up - Melandri taking 5th, Capirossi 6th and Edwards 7th - but the performance of the race was rany de Puniet’s. A fantastic 4th he had to fight for in the early stages and needed consistency to maintain, it was well deserved.

Stoner ended the race with an awesome stand-up wheelie which he reserves for his greatest celebrations, Pedrosa made it home still consistent in second and Rossi took the win, celebrating by re-living his track-side toilet joke of years ago.

It wasn’t a classic, but it was an important victory for Rossi - seeing off Lorenzo and Pedrosa on home turf, and taking maximum points in the one race of the year that Ducati always struggle at. The only issue for Rossi was Stoner doing better than expected.

MotoGPBlog Man of the Weekend: Randy de Puniet for his stunning 4th place.

In FP1 at Jerez you may have noticed a green ring around the wheels of the Suzukis and the LCR Honda of Randy de Puniet. It was most noticable on the Suzukis because of the awful colour clash with the light Rizla blue. Pictured left is the rear tyre of Vermeulen’s motorcycle. Bridgestone later revealed this as an experiment in the style of F1 tyres, to indicate to TV viewers which of the two available compounds was in use by the rider.

The experiment was only used in non-competitive sessions in Jerez so as not to disadvantage the teams involved. However, is this as relevant in MotoGP as it is in F1? Not for me. The same result could be achieved by publishing the team compound choices at the start of the race, in a similar manner to the F1 fuel weights this year. Wheel rims also form a large component of the sponsor colour schemes - think Repsol Honda’s orange wheels (clash), Kawasaki’s green rims (invisible) or LCR’s white rims (garish). It would not be aesthetically pleasing. Give me a list on screen any day.

The Jerez round saw the funniest, longest and highest scoring Minellas so far, and a distinct lack of belief in the talent of Stoner at Jerez (MotoGPBlog included). Podium picks were dominated by Rossi, Pedrosa and Lorenzo, with more than half of us choosing the current champion for the top position. Only one tipster got the podium correct : jasidog. Well done sir!

jasidog also had the funniest Minella: that Lorenzo and Pedrosa would have a punch-up. It never came to pass, but was entierly possible. The most complex Minella was entered by pintoffuc - check the entry list to see the full extent of his five-part prediction. Sadly, it was all over by Saturday afternoon as Hayden failed to reach the second row of the grid.

As for the highest scoring Minella, that went to the man who gave his name to it: DaveMinella. Predicting Stoner, Vermeulen, Melandri, Edwards and de Puniet would all improve on last year was a long shot, and deemed worthy of 15 points. Stoner, Melandri, Edwards and de Puniet all bettered their positions in the race - but what of Vermeulen? Placing 10th in ‘08 and ‘09, CV forced me to take into account total race time for each event, and he finished ‘09 a massive 7 seconds faster than ‘09, thereby improving his performance and winning DaveMinella the 15 points. Congrats Dave.

There is now a new name at the top of the leaderboard, rumblestrip (despite being the only other competitor to have Minella success) relegated to second, with consistency paying off for ScottFriday, pintoffuc and GarethCrew.

I’ll be accepting tips for Le Mans next week. Start your research now!

Current standings and results

The performance of Pedrosa has certainly had an influence this week. For the first time he has been picked for the top step of the podium. Still, around 50% of you think Rossi will win this one, with Stoner only getting the nod from two of you (Chelebele and spotcom05).

This round has also seen the first five-part Minella. pintoffuc predicted (1) both Repsols in top 5, (2) Kallio beats Capirossi but (3) both in top 8, (4) Gibernau and Takahashi last, (5) Hayden on second row of the grid. Sadly, qualifying has already undone this brave 16 point attempt, with Hayden languishing at the back.

DaveMinella has as ever given me a tough one to calculate, based on relative performances to last year (thanks Dave :). Common topics include the relative performance of Melandri to the Ducatis, the poor performance of Gibernau, and the amazing Kallio.

Top Minellas this week go to CSpeedPhoto with his “Rossi does a Gibernau to Lorenzo for the win”.
and to jasidog with “Lorenzo and Pedrosa have a punch-up”.

Enjoy the race guys. See the picks and standings here:
Standings and Picks.

Out of the blocks, Pedrosa put his marker down. Holding provisional pole for the first 15 minutes or so of the 45 minute session, he resumed his great form of Motegi, despite a time difference of some 8 hours and thousands of miles from last Sunday. Rossi, Stoner, Lorenzo, Dovizioso all tried early on to better his time to no avail. When the Repsol Honda was finally bumped from top spot it was, to the crowd’s delight, another Spanish rider - Jorge.

For this is Jerez. It is Spain in all it’s glorious, slightly insane, sunny glory. The passions and emotions are high, the natural contours of the land forming an almost gladiatorial amphitheatre - an analogy which Lorenzo would approve of. And so the crowd were treated to a session of increasingly faster laps from both riders. First blood, and pole, would ultimately go to Lorenzo. It was the tiniest of margins. Just 0.051 seconds. There is, literally, just the width of a tyre between them.

Stoner surprised himself and almost everyone else by putting his Ducati on the front row. Struggling through much of the session (in relative terms to his normal performance) in seventh, only later in the session did he force his way up the order. By this time the wind was increasing and would affect the Ducati’s stability through T4 and the crucial final corner. This was a vital advantage for Stoner tomorrow - he has the outside opportunity to battle for a podium place, a feat he has never achieved here, and is in front of Rossi. One place only, but that is better than being behind.

The field was very close throughout the session - at one point being just 1.6 seconds slower than the leader got you 17th place, and if we ignore the struggling Ducatis at the back of the grid, 1st - 15th is only 1.8s, and this is after Lorenzo and Pedrosa put in their stratospheric laps. The gap back to Stoner accounts for 0.48s of that 1.8 seconds.

The other qualifier of note was de Puniet. We often poke fun at Randy on these pages for his propensity to drop his bike, but today he deserves praise. Fastest Honda after Dani on a rev-limited satellite bike, he showed the other Honda riders the way home - including most notably a struggling Dovizioso. Edwards also had a good day, heading up the third row after briefly being on the front row earlier in the session. He’s adapting well to his Bridgestones - better than Honda and Dovi are managing, anyway.

It is going to be an hysterical, noisy, fantastic race tomorrow. It has the hallmark of an epic Spanish duel to the line. For once, Rossi and Stoner may be relegated to bit parts, with Capirossi trying his best to enlarge his role from 6th on the grid. By 2pm local time tomorrow, someone will be lighting the firecrackers - if it happens to be Lorenzo or Pedrosa, you can bet the other will already in his pit box, sulking.