MotoGP Blog

MotoGP heads back to Spain just a few weeks after Round 0 got the season underway with Stoner at the top of the timing sheets. The story of the race is likely to be very different.

Race performance for Ducati has been a different matter in recent years. The last win for Ducati here was in 2006: Capirossi. In 2007 and 2008, Stoner was the top-placed Ducati, 5th and 11th respectively. The tight twists of the Jerez Circuit do not favour the Italian team, the extraordinary raw power of the Ducati motor being less accessible on the short straights. The massive technical change that Ducati have thrust upon themselves by introducing the carbon fibre frame into the GP9 means that they are, in every race this season, starting from almost zero track data. While they will have plenty from the Jerez test, racing, as MotoGPBlog is fond of pointing out, is not testing.

Honda will have been buoyed by their strong showing in the difficult conditions in Motegi, the resurgence of Pedrosa surprising many in the paddock, not least Pedrosa himself. The Honda, despite being the ‘08 frame with some tweaks, and not the ‘09 frame which is yet to see the light of competition, appeared rideable and flexible enough to produce a great result with minimal set-up time. As Pedrosa recovers and shows signs that he has the potential to fend off the challenge of Dovizioso - the Repsol’s gnome has some fight in him yet. The agility of the Honda and the light frame of Pedrosa suits the Jerez track, and Dani will be keen to see off his nemesis: Jorge Lorenzo. The pair were forced last year to shake hands on the live broadcast of the race by the King of Spain. Neither wanted to, and while Lorenzo scored points later for talking about it, Pedrosa kept his customary wall of silence.

And so to Lorenzo. More mature this year, perhaps less arrogant, or perhaps just better at hiding it by putting his media training to good use. His performance in Motegi was masterful, refusing to get flustered as he passed and was re-passed by Rossi, secure in his knowledge that he had the beating of 46. An almost flawless ride that indicates he will be a challenger this season if he can avoid injury. Rossi, ever consistent, ever present was just a heartbeat behind Stoner in Round 0 and will see an opportunity to try and open a points gap back to Stoner. A gap he can build on, and start to turn the Rossi screw. In truth, Stoner seem almost immune to the Rossi headgames. The one chink in his armour revealed in Laguna Seca last year.

Suzuki are still riding the wave of their pre-season testing results. Not given the opportunity to demonstrate it in Qatar, cruelly stolen from Vermeulen by electrical gremlins in Motegi, this will be a chance for the other Japanese factory team to shine. They will feel it is overdue, and Vermeulen will feel he needs to start to show results, podiums and even wins or his time pulling on that daft blue sunhat will be limited.

Melandri is a rider hitting form. It is wrong that the man who never mastered the GP8 is now measured by his performance against the Ducatis in each race. He briefly headed even Stoner in Motegi, and has a realistic shot at a top 6 placing for the Hayate in Jerez. With luck, the performance of Melandri could be enough to see Kawasaki re-think their withdrawal from MotoGP, but he will need to keep consistent over the season.

And there we have the main contenders. Honda’s rev-limited satellite bikes have rendered them, if not irrelevent, nearly so, only the oh-so-fitting short-term Playboy sponsorship of de Puniet attracting the cameras their way. The Pramacs are proving to be almost as temperamental a thoroughbread as the factory Ducatis, with only Kallio managing to tame the beast with any success.

The track, being the worst of the season for Ducati, and the Spaniards in the field being lifted by their home support, it could be another Yamaha/Honda show. We can never write off the indominatable Stoner though; perhaps he will be the one to taste the tapas of victory? Tipsters should also bear in mind that Pedrosa won here in a similar state of injury last year. If his front tyre holds out, he must be favourite to do the same again on Sunday.

You can get your tips in from now, right up until the start of qualifying at Jerez on May 2nd. For the first time, you have a choice. Either @motogpblog on Twitter, or post your picks as a comment to this post. Either way, just make sure you get them in before the start of qualifying, and have some fun with your Minella. The rules are in the reference section.

It was a tough week for the tipsters. The relative lack of performance of the Stoner/Ducati combination, plus the unexpected strength of the diminutive Pedrosa meant that nobody picked the podium correctly. The big points gainers this week were those who’s Minellas came off - ScottFriday called Kallio in the top 10, domperez got his wish for Melandri to head all the Ducatis but Stoner (in fact, I thought for a while he would have Stoner too!).

All hail pintoffuc, who correctly called our first successful three-part Minella: Kallio in the top 8, Gibernau not in the top 10, Hayden will crash during the weekend.

Rumblestrip had a worse week than last week, and the consistency of ScottFriday and the skill of pintoffuc sees the gap at the top close right up - just a point or two in it now!

With the next race Jerez next weekend, the market is now open for your podium picks. Start your analysis of the previous two races now and make sure you factor in rain - who’d bet against it this season? Now, maybe that’ll be my Minella: the rain in Spain will fall mainly on the back straight…

MotoGPBlog Tipping Contest Results and Standings

Situated in Honda’s flagship “Mobilityland”, Motegi is an odd circuit within a circuit with two start/finish grids around the track and a tight, twisting character formed of straights punctuated by sharp corners. Agility is the order of the day.

With the rain and the reduction in the amount of track time at each event this season, the teams only had one 45-minute session in the dry to get the motorcycles tuned to the conditions and the track.

This would be a race of unknowns. On the grid, nobody really knew what they had underneath them. Would the tyres last? Right gearing? Hard enough suspension settings? As is the racer’s way, all these thoughts and concerns were gone with the lights. Rossi was off the line well, unlike Stoner who immediately had to contend with Vermeulen, showing his wet weather form in the dry for once. Back in the centre of the 4th row, Pedrosa pulled off one of his rocket starts, and seeing the riders in the three rows in front bunch over to the right side of the track swung his Honda out to the clear air on the left. Arriving at he first right-hander, he simply rode around the outside of the pack end up in front of Stoner, and by the third corner had Vermeulen in the bag too.

Stoner would later complain of judder from the front brake from the start of the race. He certainly looked to be unsure of the Ducati at first and slipped gradually backwards as he was mugged first by Lorenzo and then Dovizioso. One more slip in the rankings would be endured by the Aussie though - but not yet.

Meanwhile, out in front Rossi made hay while the Japanese sun shone. Quickly establishing a gap, he appeared to have the confidence in his set-up that the others lacked. Lorenzo made his move on Vermeulen to begin the chase of Rossi and Pedrosa.

Hayden’s race was ended early when rookie Takehashi outbraked himself and plunged into the back of the American, wiping both of them out. What does Hayden need to do to catch a break on the Ducati? A weekend without adding to his injuries would probably feel like a victory to him.

Further down the order, Melandri showed Toseland the edge of the track before closing in and making the pass he would have been dreaming of - taking the scalp of Stoner on the Ducati. Without hesitation Marco also passed Vermeulen. CV was beginning to suffer a failure of his quickshifter, and was fighting off Stoner, and both of them were gifted their places back by a wide-running Melandri. Melandri then spent the next couple of laps regaining his position by passing the Suzuki again - he would finish behind the Ducati.

The race began to settle a little from here. The front four forming a pack of sorts, Lorenzo towing Pedrosa and Dovizioso up to Rossi, with Stoner managing to ride around his brake issues giving chase in the distance. The massive effort Rossi was putting in, and his discomfort with the set-up of his Yamaha were indicated by his left leg hanging off the bike under braking, skating the tarmac in anticipation of a slip of the tyre. Seeing Lorenzo’s view from the on-board camera, he must have scented a weakness in the champion, as he was able to hold his line without drama. Later Rossi would report a mid-section of the race in which he had a problem - undiagnosed - which held him up for a while. It looked like his Yamaha would not hold his line in the tight corners; a front tyre issue perhaps? Lorenzo took the lead in lap 9 despite Rossi’s best efforts to hold him off.

Stoner’s race started to improve in lap 10, able now to match the leader’s pace but it was too late. Although he would close he would not challenge for the higher positions. Pedrosa was having a fantastic race, seeing the Rossi/Lorenzo battle play out in front of him. Forgetting his injuries he discovered he could stay with them. He would later say in an interview in which we saw an all-too-rare a flash of his personality, that once he got to third he hoped to hold it for a few laps. After he was still there several laps later he was surprised and hoped for more - and so it went for the rest of the race.

Rossi and Lorenzo’s pace began to slow in unison, allowing the Hondas of Pedrosa and Dovizioso to close in. Further back in the race, Toseland was having a decent race for the Brit, circulating in 8th while Gibernau would lose the front end and slip into the gravel. Gibbers would ride back to the pits, sit in the garage for a few laps, before realising he could possibly pick up some points by just being on track. Ultimately he was not classified in the race, 7 laps down at the finish with his critics asking why he was bothering.

With 8 laps to go, Lorenzo found himself with fresh air behind him as Rossi dropped back to the front of Pedrosa’s bike. Dani can hardly have believed it as he attacked Rossi. Switching places three times in a lap, Rossi looked his most uncomfortable while Pedrosa kept probing. Pedrosa would hold second position the next lap, while this seemed to spur Rossi to find a solution to the Yamaha problem. He would force his way past Pedrosa with 6 to go at turn 11, the tight, off-camber right-hander at the end of the back straight. Rossi was right on the edge in an all-or-nothing move. He would not allow Pedrosa back past him again.

The front pack would hold these positions to the end of this race of unknowns with one exception. Dovizioso would fall to Stoner who, his problems banished, looked the most lively of the leaders. Time and laps were against Stoner though, and he was unable to close further on the front three. Lorenzo held his nerve and his line to take a very well managed, calm, assured victory which was only dented by Lorenzo’s bike stalling when he stopped to plant his flag. Pedrosa hung in for third, injuries not bothering him any more, while Stoner arrived back in the garage in 4th and in a foul mood. Melandri held a stunning sixth on the Hayate Kawasaki, looking like he has found out why he loves racing again.

It is early days in the championship as yet, but it is looking like this could shape up to be a four-way fight for the victory: Rossi, Lorenzo, Stoner and Pedrosa all stand as potential winners. Will Jerez give us a better idea?

MotoGPBlog Man of the Weekend: Marco Melandri for his cracking, racing performance on the Hayate, announcing that he still has it and he is back. Very close in second place was Pedrosa, showing that his talent is undiminished by injury.

Stoner was as good a cert as you are likely to get in the Qatar race, and the results and standings in the tipping contest show that.

Crucial to the Qatar win was the Minella. In fact, the only Minella to come off from the eleven entered, and worth a mighty five points, sealed the victory for @rumblestrip. de Puniet did indeed fall less than three times over the weekend. No other Minellas were successful, but don’t let that deter you from being creative in future rounds. DaveMinella came close with two of his three Minella elements coming off, and tailzer’s Melandri prediction came very close to true, until he hit the beach.

Hats off to all others who correctly predicted the podium: bubblebutt1001, chazdavies, DaveMinella, eugenelaverty, garethcrew, InsideMotoGP and ScottFriday. Plenty of others got the podium correct, just in the wrong order.

See you for Japan! The Tipping Window opens 00:01 18th April, through to the start of qualifying on the 25th April. Tell your friends!

Stoner, lights to flag, was in his own race as he was in 2007 and 2008. This was different from the previous wins though, this was total domination. There was no chance for the Rossi pressure to exert itself - when the Italian tried mid-way through the race and closed the gap to 2.5 seconds, Casey responded. Previously, the Australian might have thrown it down the road in his efforts to resist. Not this time. This is a more measured, confident and controlled Stoner, perhaps also more mature. For sure, the fantastic technology within the GP9 played it’s part, the high-risk high-reward carbon fibre swingarm and chassis performing faultlessly. Stoner’s performance was more than this though. It was a challenge thrown to Rossi, Lorenzo and the Hondas - can you keep up? Any doubts about the fitness of Stoner have gone, and the battle is on.

For Yamaha, it must be viewed as a successful race. A lockout of 2nd - 4th, a satellite Yamaha beating Dovizioso by three seconds. Only Toseland, unable to score a point after running wide at turn 1, was a black mark this weekend. Edwards will be laughing to himself, given the recent animosity between the pair.

The Suzukis did not quite deliver the performance they had promised, although the final standings do not do their performance justice. Capirossi lost the front when running in third place, but Vermeulen remained fast all race an ended a fighting 7th place, just behind the Hondas of Dovizioso and de Angelis.

The Honda rider of the race was neither of these two. That honour went to the injured Pedrosa, who despite having minimal track time before tonight fought to a valiant 6th place before dropping back. Vermeulen passed Dani for 6th, compromising his line for the next corner. de Angelis spotted an opportunity to pass and forced his way inside Pedrosa at the exit of the turn, careering into the recovering Spaniard. The impact was enough to knock Pedrosa out of his seat and bend his handlebars on the left side. After the incident, Pedrosa dropped down the field, but picked up valuable points for 11th place.

Pedrosa headed the list of injured riders with a battling Hayden, apparently sliced open by his windshield in his qualifying accident close behind. An anonymous Gibernau in 12th did nothing of note all race. On a sad note, Melandri came in to pit road in 13th place after an early trip through the gravel at turn 1. He was looking good for a top 8 finish, and seems to be much more at home with the Kawasaki.

Finally the rookies Canepa and Takehashi, both of them looking rather out of their depth. Harsh perhaps? Not when you consider Kallio, as new to this as any of them, bringing the Ducati home in 8th place. A fantastic result for his first race with the big boys, he seems at this early stage to be the most likely to master the red machine of the current crop of riders. Could a fit Hayden of managed 8th? We’ll never know, but I doubt it.

Stoner celebrated with a massive wheelie. He knows what this means - he has the upper hand already.

MotoGPBlog Man of the Weekend: Dani Pedrosa for his battling performance in the face of his injuries. Kallio was a close runner up, but Pedrosa’s performance was brilliant, if cut short by de Angelis.

No great surprise, Stoner is the favourite to make it three in a row in Qatar, closely followed by Rossi and Lorenzo. Next, but a fair way back are the Rizla Suzukis, following their strong pre-season testing performance. All in all, the picks are surprisingly uniform.

Outside shouts:
Edwards on the podium, dgmandell and raydoell.
Pedrosa to overcome injuries: domperez, harleymac1, TheMotoWorld
Kallio to sneak on the bottom step on his debut: MotoGPBlog.

The starts of the show are the Minellas, though:
Longest shot: littlenose with Toseland 7th after being 5th on lap 2.
Most creative: tailzer with Melandri to beat all Ducatis except Stoner or DNF.
Funniest: rumblestrip with de Puniet to fall less than three times in the weekend.
Most complex: DaveMinella with Kallio 2nd Ducati, Pedrosa DNF and Gibernau >10th.
Most cruel: Chelebele with Hayden down in the first two turns of lap 1.

Have fun watching the race folks.

You can find the list of entries on the Qatar 2009 Tips page.

If you haven’t entered yet, remember the deadline for entries is noon GMT on Saturday 11th April. If you have already entered, you can change your entry, or add a Minella, right up to the deadline too.

Qatar is almost upon us. 2009 starts here. What better way to add some spice to the races than by entering into a free podium position prediction competition, that may or may not have prizes at the end of it? None more better I say.

The process and rules are thus:
1. Twitter me your predictions via an @reply for the next race at some point in the week before the race starts, up until noon (GMT) the day before the race starts (that’s noon on Friday for Assen). When I see your entry, I’ll @reply to you so you know I’ve got it.

2. I’ll publish the predictions in a post before the race starts - check the post has your entry correctly recorded. You can change it right up until the noon deadline.

3. The scoring works as follows: 2pts for 1st, 1pt for 2nd, 1pt for 3rd, and a bonus point for getting all three correct.

4. I may also award a point or points for a creative (and accurate) prediction other than the first three positions. A prediction of this nature is known as a “Minella”. I’ll let you know what your Minellas are worth before the race, should they come off. Be bold. For example: Gibernau retires before the end of lap 6. Mind you that is so likely to happen, it’s not worth a point.

5. I have the final say in the scores, and all the other stuff.

6. It’s just for fun. I’ll try and blag a prize for the winner at the end of the season.

7. I’ll publish the current standings on the blog too, sometime after the race is complete.

These rules will probably change as we get into it - I promise to be fair and impartial to all.

In discussions of 140 characters or less on Twitter with Rumblestrip, DaveMinella and BridgetNewGirl the topic came around to the durability of Sete Gibernau this season. I can’t see the Spaniard lasting the season on inferior hardware.

Let’s look back to 2005, when he was riding for Gresini. Pre-season he was a genuine title contender on a strong motorbike. Barged out of the way by Rossi in the last corner of the last lap of the first race, he never recovered all season long. Rossi owned him from then on. The latter half of his ‘05 races were littered with DNFs and mid-pack placings. Why? Well, after he entered talks with Ducati, he lost interest in making the Gresini Honda ride work, and besides, he was already beaten.

He joins Capirossi on the Ducati for 2006, but never settled. Losing out to an electrical fault in Jerez, his next chance for a podium was five races later at Mugello. He was leading when overtaken by three bikes in one lap and appeared to lose heart and give up. Again.

Then came the horrible crash in Catalunya. The whole field piling into turn 1, Gibernau drifts to the inside near to Capirossi, his team mate. Capirossi brakes and Gibernau makes contact with his brake lever hard enough to jam it on. His bike loops and chaos ensues. A horrible crash, enough to take him out for a couple of races. When he returned, he raced for another four or five races that season until, while in contract negotiations with Ducati he was brought down by a rookie, aggravating his still healing bones and effectively ending his 2006 season. The rookie would also seemingly end his career by taking “his” place at Ducati, that rookie being Casey Stoner.

Two seasons of bad luck, being out-psyched, injured and displaced had taken their toll on Gibernau, and he chose not to seek another ride. He could not go back to a satellite ride after being a factory rider, his pride would see to that, and all the factory rides were sewn up.

Three years later and he is back on a Ducati. The problem is, there are younger, faster, lighter riders on the same machinery as him, including that damned rookie. Will he stick it out? Will he allow his pride to take a hammering? My guess is that unless gathers a podium in the first half of the season, he’ll discover his shoulder injury is just too painful to continue. He’ll retire, for good this time. On the other hand, if he is fighting to be the second Ducati, this may just give him the motivation he so badly needs. And to beat Stoner - that would be too sweet to contemplate.

So, Rumblestrip, I predict the length of time Sete lasts is directly proportional to the performance of the second-best Ducati, which in my book will be Kallio. If Kallio is kicking his ass, he won’t stick about. Over 5 under 9 races and he will be gone.