MotoGP Blog

Shanghai debuted on the calendar in 2005, and it would be fair to say it was less than well received. Those critical of the circuit would characterise it as two long straights linked by a selection of hairpin bends, some well over 180 degrees, but none more contorted than turn 1, a 270 degree reducing-radius turn immediately followed by turn 2, a hairpin left. Not a sinuous flowing track to suit racing motorcycles, but contortions designed to bring cars with wings close enough together to try a pass in the desperate search for exciting auto racing.

Such are the speeds reached by the motorcycles on the long straights that the tyres are pushed in a different way than in any other race. Long straights followed by tight corners mean excessive stress on the front tyre and braking systems. Rossi retired in 2006 with a front tyre chunking on him, and rear tyres suffer on the right side in particular with that daft turn 1.

The race has a history of throwing up surprises. In 2005 Olivier Jacque pushed Rossi all the way to the line in the wet on a Kawasaki. In 2006 the Rossi tyre chunking took him out of the race allowing Edwards a rare taste of the champagne, and in 2007 this was where the Ducati power advantage became apparent, Stoner sweeping past his rivals without bothering with such trifles as slipstreaming.

Previous form shows us an embarrassment of riches. Stoner has won in the 250cc and MotoGP classes, Rossi in MotoGP. Pedrosa took the MotoGP title in 2006, and Lorenzo has also taken home a 250cc trophy from Shanghai. There is no one dominant rider emerging from the history books.

What about that Ducati power? In 2007, Rossi stayed with Stoner despite the power disadvantage by making up time in the endless twists and turns. Ultimately, power won the day. In 2008, the power gap is considerably lessened but the Ducati is looking like a less manageable ride around corners than it was in 2007. The success of the Ducati will be down to whether Stoner can make it turn the corners. Let’s forget about the rest of the Ducatis for now. Anywhere but dead last will be a victory.

Honda may wheel out the pneumatic valve engine that did not appear in Estoril, but then again they may not. If the new engine is an option, then expect another have and have-not split for the Repsol garage, with poor Nicky Hayden getting the shitty end of the stick as he did in Qatar.

The Fiat Yamaha garage will be interesting to watch as Lorenzo struggles to out-ego Rossi, riding a wave of self-confidence which is starting to look more and more justified. A fourth pole would be extraordinary, another win sure to swell his head to an unbearable size and see the return of the gold Chupa-Chup helmet. Will his recent surgery for arm-pump affect him? He thinks not.

Here’s my shout for dark horse of the weekend - Hopkins. Looking like he is back to full fitness now, or as close as makes no difference, he has great form here. In 2006 he got a then-career-best of 4th place and in 2007 got his Suzuki to third. Given his form in Estoril and a half-decent start he will hang with the leading group and may just take home a trophy.